NATO’s Chicago summit is only a month away, as highlighted
by The Economist in last week’s
article, ”NATO’s sea of troubles.” The organization, which has been a pillar of
global stability since the end of the Second World War, faces an uncertain
future due to the European financial crisis and America’s “pivot” towards Asia.
While China’s military build-up and the financial crises may have exacerbated
the shift from euro-centric military alliances, it remains merely the next
logical progression in a two decade long decline in Europe’s role as a military
partner for the US. Europe will eventually have to relearn how to defend itself
and project its power without an excessive reliance on US military largesse.
To be sure, Europe is currently beset by a host of
challenges, all of which may take primacy of funds and action over concerns
about member states’ military capabilities. Limited to negative economic
growth, an aging population, war exhaustion with Afghanistan, and a reduced
threat from rogue states with new NATO missile defense systems will certainly
take some of the urgency away from any discussion on future military
improvements. In addition, Europe’s biggest economy and one of NATO’s biggest
contributors, Germany, withdrew its personnel from NATO assets in the
Mediterranean during the Libya campaign. This opt in/opt out approach to
military engagements may fly when the US can act as guarantor of military
assets and soldiers for NATO campaigns. But as the US shifts its ever
diminishing resources to face the growing security threats in the Pacific,
Europe may find both its capabilities and credibility tested when large NATO donors
fail to rise to the occasion.
Many have dreamt that a combined European defense force
would be the EU’s answer to declining military budgets and a reduced US
presence. This remains a pipedream. European military integration has always
been the red-headed stepchild of the EU process. This is certainly
understandable for a number of reasons. Military integration would require that
member states relinquish a certain amount of control over their own protection
as well as freedom of action. Member states will remain attached to their own
domestic manufacturers, constrained by popular revulsion to military
intervention, and crippled by welfare obligations. Yet unless European member
states radically increase the share of GDP they spend on their respective
militaries, or radically lower their expectations to contribute to global
security, Leaders will find that military integration is the only way to ensure
the safety of the EU as well as the continent’s near abroad.
European member states of NATO need to decide what future
role they desire for the alliance. If they wish to continue to work as a real
partner for the US in defending the continent and projecting power, they will
need to make some hard choices about their approach to European common defense.
“Smart defense” can no longer just be a nifty idea to be implemented at a later
time. With that in mind, Europeans will have to consider specialization of
certain defense industries within the continent, mechanisms to deter major
members (read Germany) from opting out of critical operations, as well as investments
in air-defense suppression and other capabilities normally provided by
Americans.
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