A King for the Dutch Throne

The Netherlands have a king for the first time in over 100 years. Following the example of her mother and grandmother, Queen Beatrix has decided to abdicate after a 33-year reign. The Dutch crown has now passed on to her son, Willem-Alexander and his Argentine-born wife, Maxima. The simple ceremony was celebrated by hundreds of orange-clad supporters.

The Dutch monarchy enjoys a strong support base within the Netherlands. Less formal than their British counterparts, royals from the House of Orange-Nassau are wildly popular. The new king, though a bit of a partygoer (he was previously nicknamed "Prince Pils") in his youth, has a reputation for being responsible and professional while maintaining the ability to connect with the common people.

The U.S. and the Netherlands have had excellent diplomatic relations since 1782. The Dutch supported the U.S. declaration of independence from Great Britain and the ensuing American revolution. The two countries share cultural ties as well as common values of human rights and individual freedom. The Dutch have continuously worked with the U.S. to promote these values around the world, both bilaterally and through international organizations such as NATO and the UN. The Dutch have fought alongside the U.S. in many different arenas, including the Korean War, the first Gulf War, and the 1999 Kosovo air campaign. They have also participated in multiple NATO missions and the "smart defense" initiative.

The new king, however, will not be able to influence affairs of the state. According to their 1848 Constitution, the Dutch monarch is "inviolable," meaning that he or she must be politically neutral and leave the ministers accountable to Parliament for government policy. The stated role of the monarch is, in addition to performing official tasks as the head of the state, to "work actively on behalf of the people of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, playing a cohesive, representative, and encouraging role."As such the monarch is responsible for promoting social stability and progress within the community and acting as the representative for the Kingdom of the Netherlands during state visits at home and abroad.

King Willem-Alexander has been close-lipped in his political views thus far, instead focusing on his career as a water management specialist. Since 2000 he has been the chairperson of the Water Advisory Committee (formerly the Dutch Integrated Water Management Commission), an independent committee dedicated to advising ministers on water policy and its social and financial impacts. In 2006 he was asked by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to takeover as chair of the United Nations Secretary-General's Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation (UNSGAB), which in addition to advising the Secretary-General on water policy, lobbies around the world for practical and achievable measures to meet the Millennium Development Goals on water and sanitation.

Maybe the Patterson School could extend an invitation to His Majesty to join our 2013 fall conference on water issues...

Week 7: Naval Warfare

The U.S. Sea Services in the Melting Arctic

            As the Arctic melts, the more easily navigable waterways - especially the Northwest Passage - present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, and our international partners. The increase in commercial shipping and tourist traffic, oil and gas exploration, and military activity in the Arctic has already led to competing jurisdictional and resource claims over waterways. This being the case, waterways that have traditionally been the territory of submariners and icebreaker crews are becoming not only more navigable, but more popular as a result of increased viability.

            According to a 2009 interview given by Rear Admiral David Gove, then oceanographer and navigator of the Navy, "the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage were both open in 2008 for the first time, ‘open’ meaning less than 10 percent of ice. People are going to start looking seriously at whether it’s a viable commercial alternative to the Suez and Panama canals...it’s about 5,000 miles shorter from Asia to Europe via the pole than it is through the Panama Canal.”

            In response to the increased security threat resulting from the recent spike in activity in the Arctic, the 2010 Naval Operations Concept (NOC) document acknowledged national security interests in the region, indicating that the U.S. Naval Service is prepared to operate in this unique and harsh environment, either independently or in conjunction with other nations. The 2010 NOC document also states that the evolving situation in the Arctic will require deployment of submarines, icebreakers, or ice-capable ships to the Polar Regions, as well as increased investments in icebreaking capabilities and related technologies.

            The U.S. has also focused on building international cooperation in the region, particularly via the Arctic Council. This is the primary institution for handling disputes between Arctic countries while carefully excluding non-Arctic states whose presence the council deems undesirable and/or unnecessary. Other member nations of the Arctic Council are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. The council has thus far reached agreements regarding international search and rescue cooperation procedures, the establishment of a permanent secretariat in Norway, and a streamlined process for granting non-Arctic states a permanent observer status in the council. The granting of permanent observer status was intended to placate the EU and China without legitimizing their interests in the region, as a primary criterion for becoming a permanent observer is acceptance of the sovereignty of Arctic countries over their respective territory in the Arctic. As such, in order to achieve a seat at the negotiating table, a non-Arctic country must relinquish any claim that the region is a global common.

                            

This is the contested Lomonozov Ridge - claims have been submitted by Russia, Denmark (Greenland), and Canada for rights over this area.

            While the U.S. currently has stable relationships with other Arctic nations, the changing environment and competition for resources could either contribute to increasing tension or, more desirably, provide opportunities for cooperative solutions. The ownership of resources and the sovereignty of Arctic areas, including the Northwest Passage, are already being contested. One reasonable measure would be to actually ratify, then more clearly define the applicability of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, especially in those areas of the Arctic where claims overlap. In the event that tensions escalate, the Navy's preparations currently underway will likely be insufficient, but may serve to negate any misconceptions that the U.S. is not prepared to undertake major naval operations in order to secure the Arctic.

China cracks down on military use of luxury cars

Corruption has been seeing as a huge threat to the Communist Party’s legitimacy, and could lead to the collapse of the Party and the downfall of the state. It’s also a serious threat to China's future economic stability. The Chinese military (the People's Liberation Army) is also experiencing serious problems. For example, you can always see civilians drive expensive sports cars or other luxury vehicles with military or armed police license plates. These vehicles often violate traffic regulations but do not get pulled over by the police, and they do not need to pay for the toll road. Abuse of military license plates is the most visible forms of military corruption in China. Also, ranking military officers always abuse their privileges to enrich their families and lord it over ordinary citizens. With its vast network of subsidies, tax exemptions, and allowances, the PLA is commonly held to be rife with corruption. Jobs and promotions are frequently acquired through bribery, with those governing responsibility for housing and other budgetary matters commanding the highest prices.

The new leader, Xi Jinping, after he took over the reins of Communist Party, he has listed the fight against corruption as his number one priority. Since last November, he launched an austerity campaign for party and government officials.

The latest one is to issue the new guidelines and new military plates by the Central Military Commission. It has banned the use of military license plates on expensive cars, According to the new regulations, military plates are now prohibited on Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Lincoln, Cadillac, Volkswagen Phaeton, Bentley, Jaguar and Porsche models. SUVs including the Porsche Cayenne and Audi Q7 were also singled out. Put more broadly, the plates cannot be used on cars with engines larger than three liters, or a value over $73,000. To accomplish the change, the army will issue new plates designed to stop counterfeiters, and collect all previously-issued plates.

Corruption has existed in Chinese history from its beginning, and corruption has always been a major cause of rebellion and the replacement of dynasties in China. For example, the major reason that the CCP was able to defeat the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the civil war is the large-scale corruption in the KMT, especially the corruption problem in the military. The Nationalist Army was initially better equipped and had superior numbers, but corruption damaged its popularity, limited its support base, and thus, they lost in the war. Therefore, history reminds the CCP's leaders that corruption could lead to the reduction of PLA’s capability, and the collapse of the Communist Party.

"The move is meant to crack down on the creation, sale and use of counterfeit military vehicle plates and root out loopholes in military vehicle management, so as to maintain social harmony, stability and the reputation of the military," state media said, quoting a statement issued by the agency.

We need to wait longer to see if this “clean plates campaign” will success finally. The similar anti-corruption campaign has been done before in the PLA, but the problem was still unsolved. With the serious corruption problem inside Chinese military, the PLA’s fight ability is questionable. Therefore, the “clean plates campaign” is a must-do move for the Chinese government to make the PLA strong.

Because Korea hasn't had enough media coverage lately...

Though the Koreas seemed to have toned down their newsworthy actions in the past few weeks, South Korea has now withdrawn all but seven of their workers from the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). The seven who remain are said to be finalizing payment agreements. This decision denotes a serious deterioration in the already strained relations between the North and South. Though the KIC had weathered previous political storms, this withdrawal marks the first time it will be empty since it was opened in 2003.

Located ten miles north of the DMZ, the KIC has been one of the very few success stories of North-South collaboration. Using primarily South Korean investment and North Korean labor, the arrangement benefited the two countries both economically and diplomatically. Currently, there are 123 companies operating in the complex, with industries ranging from textiles to semiconductors. The largest contributor to trade between the two countries, the KIC produced $470 million in goods last year. 

Neither side has discussed the long-term future of the KIC yet, though this is seen as a hopeful sign. Both countries stand to lose significantly if the KIC is shut down permanently. North Korea depends on the KIC for much of its hard currency, and the South Korean government would be liable for hundreds of millions of dollars in insurance to the companies that use the complex. The fact that neither side seems eager to renounce the project for good means that a resolution is still yet possible. 

Renewed Interest

On Monday April 15, 2013, explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon shocked people around the world. The following week saw an intense investigation resulting in the dramatic death of one suspect and capture of the other.

Tamerlan died in a firefight with police officers.
Dzhokhar fled and was later captured.

Identified as Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the motivations of these two young men of Chechen origin are still unclear. However, they have turned a spotlight on their native land.

Currently classified as a “Republic within the Russian Federation,” Chechnya has had a troubled history. Decades of violent resistance to Russian rule, followed by a period as an autonomous region, Stalin decided in 1944 that the Chechens had collaborated with the Nazis in WWII and should therefore all be deported to Kazakhstan. Thousands died as a result.

After Nikita Kruschev came to power following the death of Stalin the Chechens were invited to return back to the Caucasus and form an autonomous region within the Soviet Union once again.

The 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity for the Chechens. Separatists claimed independence for Chechnya.  Russian troops entered Chechnya in 1994 in an effort to squelch this movement, resulting in a bitter 20-month-long war in which an estimated 100,000 people were killed. 

Though previous attempts had been made, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov sign a formal peace treaty in 1997. This, however, does not solve the issue of Chechen independence.

In the (anything but peaceful) years that followed, the nationalist movement that had previously motivated Chechen leaders took on a decidedly more religious theme. 

Maskhadov announces in 1999 that Shari'ah law would be phased in over the next three years. 

Chechen rebels also enter into neighboring Dagestan in an attempt to form an Islamic state there. 

The new Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, blames Chechen rebels for a series of apartment bombings across Russia that kill 300 people. He cites this as justification for a new crackdown in Chechnya. In 2000 Russia troops capture and decimate the city of Grozny. Putin declares direct rule a few months later and then appoints Akhmat Kadyrov, a former Chechen cleric, as the head of his administration there. Kadyrov is elected president in 2003. He is killed in a bombing attack shortly thereafter and succeeded by his son, Ramzan.

Meanwhile, the bloody conflict continued. Vicious attacks from both sides prompt human rights organizations to cite numerous violations. Though the rebel forces are not without blame, most of the citations focus on the conduct of the Russian forces. This hampers Putin's requests for international assistance with his campaign. He claims that the Chechen rebels have ties to international terrorist organizations, though there is no hard evidence to prove this.

Putin's successor, Dmitry Medvedev, declares an end to this "counter-terrorism operation" in 2009, claiming the situation in the republic to be "normalized."However, the violence continued. When Putin resumed the presidency in 2012, he reinstated his campaign. The upcoming winter Olympics in Sochi provide a powerful incentive to clean house.

He has received criticism from human rights groups world-over, but if the Tsarnaev brothers are proven to have ties to a terrorist group with bases in the Caucasus, this could change. If this proves to be the case, Mr. Putin will undoubtedly be the epitome of graciousness whilst delivering his "I told you so" speech.