Saturday, April 15, 2017

More U.S Strikes in Somalia


The Pentagon announced on Thursday March 31, 2017 that it extended the powers given to the US military to carry out strikes in Somalia against the insurgents al –shabab. As a result, these strikes are expected to grow in number and should be more aggressive. In fact, President Trump “signed a directive on Wednesday giving the U.S. military authorization to conduct offensive counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia targeting al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group.” Trump
The idea behind this new directive is give more autonomy to US forces in conducting more airstrikes operations and without having to invoke the self-defense argument as it used to be in the past. According to ABC,” Until now, the U.S. military had only been able to conduct airstrikes against al-Shabab fighters in self-defense situations when African Union or Somali government troops accompanied by American advisers were under attack.”
According the Pentagon’s spokesperson, the president has approved a Department of Defense proposal to provide additional precision fires in support of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali security forces operations to defeat al-Shabab in Somalia. AMISOM is the regional peacekeeping mission in Somalia operated by the African Union, a continental bloc, with the approval of the United Nations. The authority is consistent with our approach of developing capable Somali security forces and supporting regional partners in their efforts to combat al-Shabab.”
“Somali governmental forces and AMISOM forces have already achieved significant success in recapturing territory from al-Shabab. This US additional support is critical in the sense that it would put more pressure on the insurgents and reduce the risk to the coalition when operations are taking place. The Operations are also intended to deny al-Shabab safe havens from which it could be harmful to the U.S. interests.”

 Even though the directive lays out some restrictions on counter-terrorism air strikes with the aim that would prevent civilian casualties and increase effectiveness, many people are skeptical about this new directive and its collateral damages. In 2016, the US conducted many airstrikes and the damages were disastrous. Data compiled by a British NGO show that the strikes caused the death of at least 200 civilians. Besides, others argue that the airstrikes will lead to “the radicalization of a much more segments of the population that are already somewhat polarized by al-Shabab.” Somalis are experiencing a worse drought, which causes the issue of famine and many diseases such as cholera and malaria. The United Nations said that Somalia is experiencing its worst humanitarian crisis.
  In one way or another, the new directive is welcome because it gives a greater autonomy to AFRICOM to conduct more drone strikes freely without having to refer back to washing and in the same to ensure the security and the safety of the civilian population. 

US and North Korea beating the war drums?

Despite its belligerence towards the West and the United States in particular, North Korea has for a long time benefited from US food aid. In fact, according to the US State Department, North Korea received $1 million in humanitarian aid following the damages caused by typhoon Lionrock in 2016. From the US perspective, humanitarian aid has always come as a way to convince the North Korean leadership to abandon its nuclear ambitions. This “food for nukes” strategy proved to be a disaster as Pyongyang continues to put forth bellicose rhetoric.

 Kim Jon Un has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons on its southern border, as well as the United States. The North Korean leadership has shown that it is willing to improve its nuclear capabilities at all costs. That is evidenced by multiple missiles test conducted in the last two years despite warnings by the international community as a whole, including China. This of course prompted the United States to respond by deploying the Carl Vinson Strike Group, comprisedof an aircraft carrier and other warships, in theregion. North Korea on its part said on April 15 that it is “prepared to respond to an all-out-war with an all-out war” according to Choe Ryong-Hae, who is believed to be second in command in the country.

 Even though agitation and provocation are customary tactics on North Korea’s part, there are reasons why we should be worried. President Trump has demonstrated on two separate occasions his willingness to use US military might to achieve his political end. One use of US hard power occurred on April 7 as a response to Syrian president’s use of chemical weapons. The other instance of display of American military power took place in Afghanistan when the so called “mother of all bomb” was dropped on a tunnel, obliterating ISIS targets in the process.

Furthermore, military experts argue that North Korea is getting closer to possessing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMS). This would obviously further increase tensions in the peninsula and possibly cause US allies such as Japan and South Korea to develop their own ICBMS.
China is growing impatient with the North Korean regime and is possibly considering contingencies plan. On April 10, China moved 150,000 troops to its border with North Korea to potentially prevent an inflow of refugees in case of war. At the same time, President Xi urged both parties (US and North Korea) to takea "cool-headed" approach to escalating tensions with North Korea

Clearly, China has much to lose in a war in the Korean peninsula as it will be forced to participate in the conflict in order to prevent a democratic Korea on its border. Some experts are even suggesting that China may be willing to take matters in its own hands and forcibly remove Kim Jon Un and replace him with a “friendlier” leader. moreover, Russia shares a border with North Korea and may get involved as well.


No one knows at this point when the first shots will be fired. However, the potential for escalation and conflict in the region is as high as it’s ever been.

Friday, April 14, 2017

On the Brink



Can we talk about how we’re just glossing over the fact that we’re kind of close to nuclear war? What a time to be alive! Or not. Alive. Who knows. Last week was insane. This week has followed suit. Russian Prime Minister, Dimitri Medvedev, said that the U.S. air strikes on Syria brought the U.S. to “the brink of combat clashes with Russia.”


Surely not! You mean President Trump has accepted that a positive relationship with Russia is never going to work? The mind reels. Surely President Trump knows that Syria is Russia’s war? Surely he would understand the consequences of airstrikes on a base that we know likely had Russian advisers? Surely? He is, after all, the most powerful, important person in the world.

Syria is not our only problem right now, though. Air strikes on Syria sent a very strong message to other foes, namely North Korea. Fears that the North Koreans might stage another nuclear test this weekend prompted the U.S. to move an aircraft strike group towards the Korean peninsula. This is already a “big” weekend for the North Koreans as they celebrate the 105th anniversary of the their founding father. Kim Jung-un has been prone to “explosive” celebrations of this anniversary.  

So what do the North Koreans think about the aggressive U.S. response to Syria and the bomb dropped on Afghanistan? In the words of national security expert Dr. Robert Farley, “it’s really hard to say.” I don’t know. North Korea’s news agency KCNA said that the country would counteract U.S. action in “a merciless manner as not to allow the aggressors to survive.” Whether or not that rhetoric actually means anything is unclear. Last week I argued that we shouldn’t be immediately concerned with North Korea; now I’m not so sure.

China is urging both sides to dial down their rhetoric and stop threatening each other before this literally goes nuclear. Talking is good. Not talking is okay too. Earlier today I held a discussion about Cold War detente with freshman level students. Maybe we could use some of that idealism today. One thing’s for sure; if all powers involved don’t cool off a little bit, we might step over the brink.

F35: The Iron Triangle

The Pentagon released its end-of-year progress report for 2016 on the F-35, and once again, the news isn’t very good. This is nothing new for the F-35, which has been bombarded by poor performance reviews, cost overruns, and directly subject to criticism by President-elect Donald Trump. On paper, the F-35 is supposed to complete its System Development and Demonstration (SDD) and begin its Initial Operational Test and Evaluation (IOT&E) by August, 2017. The Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) has been in SDD since 2001 and was expected to complete that process this year. That’s no longer going to happen. Instead, the report indicates the F-35 will not be able to start IOT&E with full combat capability until late CY18 or early CY19, at the soonest.

The F-35’s problems are at least partially the result of allowing Lockheed Martin to pursue concurrent flight design and active deployment. The idea behind concurrency was that Lockheed Martin could begin building an aircraft while still fine-tuning various aspects of its de
sign. In theory, applied to much simpler vehicles, it might have worked, especially if the F-35 had been modeled from an existing aircraft. For the F-35, concurrency has been a disaster. Right now, every single F-35 already built will need to be extensively overhauled to meet its minimum performance targets. All the while, Lockheed Martin rakes in the cash.
Despite the negative press, the F-35 is a “too big to fail” program, partly because of the military–industrial–congressional complex, aka the “Iron Triangle”. The F-35 funnels business to a global network of contractors that includes Northrop Grumman Corp. It counts 1,300 suppliers in 45 states supporting 133,000 jobs, according to Lockheed. The F-35 is an example of how large weapons programs can plow ahead amid questions about their strategic necessity and their failure to arrive on time and on budget.
This economic integration is just one aspect of the Iron Triangle. The defense industry is unique in that there is much more cooperation among companies than in other industries. Defense companies not only compete against one another, but also supply one another for projects. For example, Lockheed Martin competes against Northrop Grumman in the airborne surveillance market; however, the two companies are partners on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter development program and have a joint venture to produce missiles for helicopters. Boeing as a supplier of combat aircraft, but Raytheon supplies the radar, Northrop Grumman the navigation and guidance systems, and BAE Systems some of the avionics that are used on these aircraft. This industry wide cooperation leads to a lack of competition, thus ensuring high prices for acquisitions.
Another cause for concern with the Iron Triangle is “buy America” restrictions. Senator Chris Murphy (D–CT) filed an amendment to the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that significantly expanded “buy America” restrictions. The Murphy amendment effectively expanded Buy America restrictions globally with only the narrowest of exemptions for “urgent” national security needs. There are a number of “buy American” provisions relating to defense spending. The Buy American Act requires the U.S. government to give preference to products made in the United States. Bulk purchases of more than $3,000 are subject to this act. The Berry Amendment specifically prevents the DoD from buying products such as clothing and textiles outside of the United States. The amendment is applied to purchases of at least $150,000.
From a national security perspective, there are reasons to closely consider who is selling a product or service to the DOD. The United States does not want to find itself relying on a potential adversary for a critical resource or capability. It is reasonable for the DOD to ensure that critical capabilities, resources, and technologies are not bought from adversaries or potential adversaries. However, countries that are U.S. allies pose no serious threat. Therefore, U.S. allies should be able to compete for DOD business without any hurdles. U.S. war-fighters and taxpayers will be best served by free and open competition that includes companies from allied countries.
There are many reasons why “buy American” is bad policy. As previously state, the Berry Amendment, a law that dates from 1941, requires the U.S. military to buy food and clothing sold to the military to have been grown or made in the U.S. with few exceptions. This prohibition is important because Operations and Maintenance is one of the biggest spending categories of the defense budget. Operations and Maintenance includes spending on fuel, food, base and depot maintenance, training, recruiting, space control facilities, transportation, medical and other services. The Murphy amendment imposes enormous costs in time and money on war-fighters and taxpayers. This amendment is not frugal. The Murphy amendment also severely harms national security in that the military has difficulties and delays obtaining the supplies that it needs when operating overseas. This policy also sends a message of distrust to U.S. allies. When Congress passed the defense spending bill, Murphy praised the robust funding for Connecticut defense jobs, stating, “The security initiatives authorized in this bill solidify Connecticut’s role as a national leader in American defense,” clearly displaying the workings of the Iron Triangle.
In conclusion, there is too much cooperation and a lack of competition in the American defense industry to effectively lower prices. Also, “buy America” provisions do not save the taxpayer money and there is no national security reason to exclude companies in allied countries from competing for DOD contracts. Free and open competition among friendly countries will produce the best products for our military at the best prices. Therefore, to “make America strong again”, the answer isn’t simply to increase defense spending but rather to break the Iron Triangle.


Immunity, Shmimpunity, I say





The year was 2016. One campaign aide to future-president Donald J. Trump who aspired to a position of prominence within the new administration was unafraid to join the "Lock Her Up"-ers when he stated that, on the topic of aides with information on Hillary Clinton's private email server, "When you are given immunity, that means you probably committed a crime." That person was Michael Flynn, former (light emphasis on former) National Security Advisor to President Trump. Flynn is now asking for immunity in exchange for testimony regarding Russia's communications with top White House officials. A growing fervor among politicians and political analysts alike surrounds this developing investigation into Russia's pull within the new executive administration. What's more is that Trump himself actually supports the plea for immunity, stating officially (in his twitter) that the investigation is a witch hunt concocted by the liberal media in order to detract from his infant presidency.



Shock and awe come over the crowd as Trump's executive branch turns inward on itself. Who could have possibly seen this coming? In what crazy universe do incredibly rich and/or self-serving individuals get into fights over other incredibly rich and/or self-serving individuals? I simply could not anticipate this outcome.

One wonders if this could even be a ploy coming from Trump himself. "Hey Mike, listen, I know a guy in the CIA. Just take a small fall for this, you'll get immunity, and I promise to tell everyone that we're the true best friends of the White House. Forget Pense, you and I are the real Obama/Biden." "Gee, okay boss." The only other explanation would be that Trump has nothing to hide.

Or he believes he has nothing to hide.

Two completely different things.


The bad news for Flynn is that investigators seem uninterested in taking him up on the offer. The investigation seems to be continuing a direction of non-bias (gasp) and potentially even pursuing evidence-based claims instead of:


Now with Flynn "out" and Steve Bannon on the fritz, we will all certainly be on baited breath to see how Trump reconfigures this wondrous and enigmatic machine that we call the executive branch.

Can't wait.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

First use of a GBU-43/B MOAB in Combat

The GBU-43/B MOAB, Massive Ordinance Airblast Bomb was deployed for the first time in combat on April 13th, 2017. The ordinance was deployed against ISIS Stronghold in Achin district, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The GBU-43 is a 21,600-pound air burst precision bomb delivering 18,700 pounds of H-6 explosive and is deployed out of an MC 130 H Tallon. H-6 explosive is an explosive compound that when compared to a TNT, H-6 according to the Amry field training manual FM 3-34.214, has 1.33 times more effective. This equivalency would place an 18,700 pounds of H-6 equivalent to an explosion of 24,871 pounds of TNT. All of this explosive creates a bomb with a blast radius of 1,000 yards, kill radius of the shockwave of 1.7 miles, at 2 miles it causes deafness, at 5 miles it shakes the ground and breaks windows, and can be seen up to 30 miles away, according to GobalSecurity.org. In comparison, a 2,000 MK 48 only has a shrapnel kill radius of 360 meters. This makes the GBU-43/B the bomb with the largest conventional warhead in the United States arsenal. Test of the weapon was conducted in 2003 and 20 were put into the United States arsenal for 16 million dollars a piece.  For a large scale enemy compound with tunnels, buildings, logistical assets, IED`s in addition with no civilian population in the vicinity, it would make the perfect target for this weapon system, in addition to having a huge psychological impact on the enemy. The blast if detonated near the tunnel entrances will push blast pressure throughout all of the tunnel systems killing any occupants insides by either overpressurization or making an environment devoid of oxygen. In addition to collapsing the tunnels, destroying entrances, detonating any IED`s, and destroying any enemy assets. The use of the GBU-43/B was a cost-effective deployment of the ordinance to take out enemy personnel, logistical assets, and denial of ground in this situation when comparing other options and the amount of ordinance that would have to be used to have the same effect range of destruction due to poor topography, and the sheer mass of devastation needed to be effective. The use of this weapon to knock out a cave system that has been used for many years as a logistical supply and housing system for enemy combatants to rearm and conduct operations out of has been taken away in a single hit.  In addition, the deployment of this weapon for the first time is used a huge psychological factor on enemy combatants and potential adversaries not only in the area but in other combat zones as well, displaying the fearsome might of American ordinance. Confirmation of enemy combatants and killed or injured and the amount of destruction has yet to be released.  The situation is still developing, but today marks the largest conventional bomb ever deployed in combat.

Video footage of a GBU-43/b MOAB test
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_gk49n5djw
Sources :
http://www.deagel.com/Defensive-Weapons/GBU-43B_a000978001.aspx
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/030312-moab02.htm
http://ww3.safaq.hq.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1151350/us-bombs-destroys-khorasan-group-stronghold-in-afghanistan/
https://aoav.org.uk/2016/large-destructive-radius-air-dropped-bombs-the-mark-80-series-and-paveway-attachments/
http://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/1151115/us-forces-targets-destroys-isis-k-stronghold/
https://info.publicintelligence.net/USArmy-Explosives.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9H50tHiHjs

Monday, April 10, 2017

The Palm Sunday Bombings and ISIS

On April 9th, suicide bombers attacked two Coptic Christian churches in Egypt. The bombings, which were claimed by ISIS, killed at least 49 people. These attacks came at a particularly bad time for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt seems like a new target for ISIS attacks, but in reality there may be a possibility of seeing more violence there in the future.
The Copts have a history of being persecuted and discriminated against in their own country. They have also experienced violence at the hands of ISIS. In early 2015, an ISIS propaganda video showed 21 Egyptian Copts beheaded by ISIS militants. Despite increased security at churches, on Sunday a bomber was able to sneak into St. George’s church in Tanta, Egypt and detonate a bomb near the altar. Around two hours later, another man tried to enter St. Mark’s Cathedral in Alexandria, Egypt. Police were searching him when he detonated his bomb.
These attacks did not come at a good time for President Sisi. He returned on Friday from a meeting with United States’ President Donald Trump, where Sisi hailed as being successful against the fight on extremism. Pope Francis is also set to visit Egypt later this month and meet with Coptic Pope Tawadros. Sisi has issued a three-month emergency state in Egypt.
Why would ISIS target Egypt and the Copts? It is important to note that in ISIS’s opinion, jihadist movements have not taken off in Egypt. In a study by ISIS supporter Abu Mawdud al-Harmasy, al-Harmasy found that a ‘key for jihadi success’ in Egypt is killing Christians to ‘inflame certain rural areas’. Therefore killing Copts is seen as a way to increase ISIS support in Egypt.
The question that remains is how Egypt can protect the Copts and other Egyptians from ISIS. One key is ensuring that these attacks do not ‘inflame’ areas. Currently, Egypt has blasphemy laws that limit what non-Muslims can do and say, but leaves the door open for extremists to continue hate speech against minorities. Changing these laws to include protections for Copts and other religious minorities would be a good start. Also, continuing to combat ISIS not only militarily, but also ideologically is key to ensuring that more attacks like these will not take place. One can hope that these attacks also cause any popular support for ISIS to wane due to the killing of civilians. What these attacks show is that the world still has a long way to go in combating the threat of ISIS.

Saturday, April 08, 2017

Can We Please Discuss What Exactly It Is We Are Doing?

Less than 48 hours after announcing Bashar al-Assad could stay in power, the United States proceeded to bomb him. In all fairness to the President, the situation had changed; the use of sarin against civilian populations was a clear slap in America’s face, all but daring President Trump to do something. Something was indeed done. But what exactly was it? Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has stated that the strikes do not represent a major change in American policy on Syria. However, Tillerson’s message was contradicted NSA McMaster’s characterization of the strikes as a “big shift” which should cause Assad to revise his calculus. Thus, nobody, including the administration itself, seems to know what Trump was trying to achieve by striking Syria. This is a very bad thing.

            American Presidents love cruise missiles because they appear to be an easy, low-risk punitive tool. However, the siren song of the Tomahawk is dangerous and misleading. On their own, they cannot inflict sufficient damage to alter adversaries’ behavior. Therefore, should the enemy refuse to back down, then the President is faced with a choice: either escalate or look even weaker than if he had chosen not to strike at all. Aare already taking off from the airfield struck, indicating that the damage done was minimal at best. Furthermore, unconfirmed reports suggest the regime has used phosphorus and chlorine bombs since the attack. Absent further action, Assad may interpret this as an indication that the benefits of using chemical weapons outweigh the cost. This may force Trump to respond with additional kinetic measures. The Trump Administration could be caught in an escalation spiral without a clear idea as to their desired outcome. Therefore, before any additional bombings, it would be nice if the government were to cobble together a strategy.