With the American shift
towards the Pacific region, much focus has been placed on the perceived
containment strategy against China, implemented by Washington, through mutual
defense agreements and economic partnerships such as Trans-Pacific Partnership.
At the same time, Beijing has been forcefully pushing territorial claims in the
South China Sea, creating an atmosphere of worry and fear among its weaker
neighbors. With outrageous claims such as the 9 dash line, which completely
ignore previously agreed upon norms such as the UNCLOS, tension between China
and neighboring countries has simmered, at some points boiling over in near armed
conflict.
Vietnam,
long thought of as a beneficiary country of the Chinese or one that is more ideologically
similar, has been one of the nations to bear the brunt of these overreaching
claims in the South China Sea. When looking
at the relations between the two historically, both parties have been known to
clash. In 1979, the Chinese military entered northern Vietnam as a response to
the Vietnamese invasion and occupation of Cambodia. In 1988, there was a brief
naval conflict between the two nations over the long held issue of territorial
claims in the South China Sea, the Johnson South Reef Skirmish, where both
nations sent naval vessels to consolidate their claims over the Spratly
Islands, where more than 60 Vietnamese soldiers were killed by Chinese forces.
Why is it then that the nations in
the region are so insistent on their claims in areas where there are few
landmasses, but rather open seas? In the near future, when resources become
scarcer, nations will be forced to compete more with one another. According to
the United
States Energy Information Administration, the South China Sea
is thought to have more than 11 billion barrels of oil. The Administration
continues to state, “The South
China Sea is a critical world trade route and a potential source of
hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas, with competing claims of ownership over
the sea and its resources.”(USEIA) In the attached graphic, one can
see the amount of explorative measures that oil companies have already taken
part in off the coast of Vietnam and why both nations are key to gain
sovereignty over the area.
There exists several options for Vietnam, a much smaller country in
terms of population and economic power, to be able to counter such an
overwhelming power such as China. The first option would be an approach in
relations with China in the hopes that siding with the major power in the
region would bring a possible compromise in terms territory gained or lost.
However, after looking at the large amount of territory China has claimed and
the aggressive measures taken to consolidate these claims, (see Senkaku
Islands), this choice would be limited in benefits.
The other major option
for Vietnam is to seek a power balancing mechanism, As seen in ASEAN. While
alone, the countries in this group may be limited in their success when dealing
with the Chinese, if they are able to show a unified position and increase
their bargaining power through a larger overall military and economic power.
Vietnam also has begun to increase defense cooperation with the United States,
leaving open the possibility of increased cooperation as a deterrent towards
China.
The second option
seems to be the most plausible for the Vietnamese government. There is no
guarantee that cooperation with Beijing would lead to concessions on the
Chinese side. The Chinese behavior towards other countries in the region
regarding the same territorial claims highlights the fact that a mutual
agreement is highly unlikely. The best way to deter Chinese aggression towards
Vietnam is to increase the cost of such aggression through power balancing,
thus furthering the damage that China may face economically and militarily if
it were to attempt to force its will upon its neighbors.
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