Friday, February 17, 2023

A Fight Already Lost: U.S.’s Possible Failure to Defend Taiwan Against China


Wargaming conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies has produced a concluding result that the U.S. would be incapable of defending Taiwan from China. Simulations saw, “several U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups sunk, hundreds of U.S. combat aircraft destroyed, and thousands of U.S. military personnel lost in the war’s opening days.”[1]

Currently, the U.S. Navy is dispersed across the globe to match the needs of a high global power. While Americas global presence gives it control and access to many ports and regions, a focused naval attack by a foreign powers center of gravity would be hard to respond to if U.S. combatant commanders do not prepare properly. Let there be no misconception, defending Taiwan from a Chinese incursion means deterring Chinese forces near their homeland. America would need to account for this, but it is not a guarantee at this time that the U.S. could defeat such a force so close to their homeland’s natural naval resources.

Consolidating naval vessels to repel an assault would prove time consuming and leave on site U.S. ships vulnerable to amassing Chinese naval combatants. Though, the U.S. has other options in its response, airpower. With the ability to maneuver aircraft carriers to allow for the bombing and rapid deployment of air power, the U.S. could defend forward against the Chinese Navy. Sit-in forces, like the Marines, could augment naval capacity and could deter Chinas response times.

Currently, U.S. commanders are in a difficult position to respond to China. Results from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows not only a U.S. loss in the opening of combat but shows that the U.S. needs to persuade China to not come to the same conclusion lest they capitalize on such an assessment.

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