Wargaming conducted by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies has produced a concluding result that the U.S. would be
incapable of defending Taiwan from China. Simulations saw, “several U.S.
aircraft carrier strike groups sunk, hundreds of U.S. combat aircraft
destroyed, and thousands of U.S. military personnel lost in the war’s opening
days.”[1]
Currently, the U.S. Navy is dispersed across the globe
to match the needs of a high global power. While Americas global presence gives
it control and access to many ports and regions, a focused naval attack by a
foreign powers center of gravity would be hard to respond to if U.S. combatant
commanders do not prepare properly. Let there be no misconception, defending
Taiwan from a Chinese incursion means deterring Chinese forces near their
homeland. America would need to account for this, but it is not a guarantee at
this time that the U.S. could defeat such a force so close to their homeland’s
natural naval resources.
Consolidating naval vessels to repel an assault would
prove time consuming and leave on site U.S. ships vulnerable to amassing
Chinese naval combatants. Though, the U.S. has other options in its response,
airpower. With the ability to maneuver aircraft carriers to allow for the
bombing and rapid deployment of air power, the U.S. could defend forward
against the Chinese Navy. Sit-in forces, like the Marines, could augment naval
capacity and could deter Chinas response times.
Currently, U.S. commanders are in a difficult position
to respond to China. Results from the Center for Strategic and International
Studies shows not only a U.S. loss in the opening of combat but shows that the
U.S. needs to persuade China to not come to the same conclusion lest they capitalize
on such an assessment.
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